Under the Green Central Asia (GCA) Initiative Action Plan, the GCA-II project aims to contribute to conflict prevention and to strengthen transboundary cooperation in addressing the impacts of climate change in Central Asia. To achieve this overarching objective, the project focuses on strengthening regional and national capacities to enhance resilience to agricultural drought, with particular emphasis on timely detection, assessment, and mitigation. This is pursued through improved transboundary water management, supported by the systematic collection, integration, and provision of comprehensive datasets and scientific evaluations.
A key component of GCA-II is the continuous dialogue between science and policymakers, aimed at raising awareness and strengthening evidence-based decision-making processes. In this context, the project supports the development, adaptation, and integration of digital scientific tools into operational and policy frameworks for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Central Asia.
Specifically, the project focuses on:
- Adapting and integrating existing national drought prediction and prevention systems into Droughtmap-ASB;
Updating and tailoring Droughtmap-ASB to current datasets and the operational requirements of local partner institutions to ensure effective and sustained use; - Integrating multiple tools, techniques, and datasets developed under the Berlin Process and the GCA framework into a comprehensive decision-support system for drought prediction.
To further support informed policymaking, the project provides condensed and policy-oriented evaluations and analyses, such as Droughtmap visualisations and ASB drought bulletins, thereby bridging the gap between scientific outputs and policy needs. In addition, GCA-II promotes the digitization of Central Asian partner institutions by enabling them to independently operate and apply digital tools, including Droughtmap-ASB and WUEMoCA, thereby supporting long-term ownership, sustainability, and institutional capacity development.
Background and objectives
Central Asia faces significant environmental challenges due to drought, including mass livestock die-offs, water shortages for irrigation, and disruptions in drinking water supplies. These issues are compounded by shifts in precipitation patterns, leading to increased runoff and water scarcity. The degradation of the Aral Sea has further impacted the region’s microclimate and human health, affecting agricultural productivity and livestock health. Additionally, uncoordinated national strategies and low water efficiency exacerbate water resource management challenges, leading to disputes and political tensions. This underscores the need for improved environmental decision-making, particularly in drought management.
Germany has been instrumental in fostering cooperation among Central Asian countries to develop common national environmental action plans. This initiative, under the Berlin process and the Green Central Asia project, emphasizes mutual trust and inclusivity among transboundary nations. The Martin Luther University (MLU) has contributed to agricultural drought assessment and early warning systems for the entire Central Asia region, aiming to enhance drought risk management and support the development of drought preparedness plans.
Sub-objectives
- Development of technical material for the droughtmap-ASB tool and its availability online;
- Provision of historic drought information, i.e., drought bulletins on a seasonal scale;
- Transition of the Drought tool from MODIS data to Sentinel-3 data;
- Data availability, exploration, and checking its adaptation for the calculation of further drought indicators;
- Estimation and implementation of the drought indicators in the Droughtmap-ASB tool;
- Incorporating other data layers and basemap information in Droughtmap-ASB.
Methodological approach
The proposed methodology of GCA-II can be structured as follows:
Adaptation to National Regulatory Formats: The first step involves making necessary adaptations to ensure better alignment with national regulatory formats. This includes modifying the tool to comply with the specific requirements and standards set forth by national regulatory bodies.
Inclusion of Additional Drought Indicators: To enhance the tool’s capabilities in identifying drought-affected agricultural regions, additional drought indicators will be incorporated. These indicators will specifically target rain-fed agriculture areas, providing a more comprehensive assessment of drought impacts.
Expansion of Monitoring Area: The monitoring area will be extended to include neighboring regions. This expansion will broaden the geographical coverage of the tool, enabling a more holistic understanding of drought dynamics across different regions.
Integration of Advanced Information Display: Advanced information, such as national and regional management basemaps on water supply and use, will be integrated into the tool’s interface. This feature aims to facilitate better decision-making by government institutions by providing them with relevant contextual information.
Enhancement of Tool Design: The current monitoring tool will undergo modifications to enhance its flexibility and interactivity. These improvements will enable users to retrieve historical drought information more efficiently, supporting comprehensive analyses and assessments.
Implementation of Forecasting Algorithm: A forecasting algorithm will be implemented in droughtmap-ASB with datasets and models from GFZ Potsdam to enable the prediction of future drought events. This will rely on historical data and relevant environmental factors to forecast potential drought occurrences, aiding proactive decision-making and planning.
Expected results
In addition to accomplishing the overarching goals of the GCA-II project, MLU will play a significant role in advancing progress in two key areas: technical innovation and adaptation, as well as communication and decision support for policy formulation.
Technical innovation and adaptation
- Necessary adaptations of the tool to better connect to national regulatory formats must be made;
- Inclusion of additional drought indicators (e.g., for rain-fed agriculture) to identify other drought-affected agricultural regions and to continuously develop the tools;
- Extension of the drought monitoring area to neighboring regions;
- Display of advanced information, e.g., national and regional management basemaps on water supply and use, climatic variables to enable better use of the tool by government institutions;
- More flexible and interactive design of the current monitoring tool to enable the retrieval of historical drought information;
- Implementation of a drought forecasting algorithm.
Communication and decision support for policy making
Regular communication and consultations with representatives of the hydrometeorological services and other regional stakeholders are necessary for the following reasons:
- Further expansion of capacity building activities;
- Increase adoption and ownership for the sustainable implementation of the tools via the Hydromet services and other stakeholders;
- Strengthening mutual trust and improving cooperation between the countries of Central Asia;
- Deepening cooperation with the Scientific Information Centre of the Intergovernmental Commission on Water Distribution in Central Asia (SIC-ICWC) to broaden the acceptance of the solutions presented;
- Provision and dissemination of extensive materials (e.g., tool documentation, manuals, recommendations for action in English and Russian) for concrete users of the tools on the one hand, and to increase visibility in general;
- Provide technical support to the hydrometeorological services by providing equipment and computers to ensure the use of the tool.
